[IP] more on Why's a Retired Army Lieutenant Colonel on the"No-Fly" List?]
Begin forwarded message:
From: Brad Templeton <btm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: February 27, 2006 2:35:08 PM EST
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: ip@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] mo Why's a Retired Army Lieutenant Colonel on
the"No-Fly" List?]
On Mon, Feb 27, 2006 at 06:33:40AM -0500, Dave Farber wrote:
a set
of criteria describing a sample set to predictions of future set
membership,
is going to have false positives and false negatives. Any
methodology that
had zero false positives and false negatives would be so limited as
to be
useless.
To put this in non-scientific terms, the only way to 100% avoid false
identifications is to have the system so limited as to be useless,
like
saying
"suspect someone only if they're carrying fuse wire and muttering
'allah
akbhar' under their breath." On the other hand, the only way to
100% avoid
Justice systems in free nations are based on a concept in contradiction
of this logic. They follow the regime that "it is better that 100
murderers
go free than to punish an innocent person."
Does that mean they never convict innocents and have zero false
positives?
No. But it does mean that if a false positive is discovered in the
system, it tries like hell to make sure it will never happen again.
Ernesto Miranda, whose name you surely know, confessed within two hours
of arrest to kidnapping and raping an 18 year old Phoenix woman. He
had not been made aware of his rights to remain silent. He was
convicted.
As a result, now any confession from a person who has not been informed
of their rights is inadmissible in court. Guilty, confessed criminals
go free. Miranda was convicted without his confession, and then,
in the
ultimate irony, Miranda was stabbed to death in a bar fight a few years
after he got out of prison. The suspect was read his rights, and
refused
to talk to police. He was released.
In our system of justice, the officers are told to bend over backwards
to avoid false positives. When they are found, it bends over backwards
to stop them again. (Well, most of the time -- it is slow sometimes to
consider new evidence after many appeals.)
And that's with actual suspects, in some cases confessed killers. The
transportation security problems are with non-suspects, simply trying to
travel.
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