[IP] more on Oil Independence?
Begin forwarded message:
From: Jim Thompson <jim@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: September 12, 2005 8:39:08 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] Oil Independence?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html says:
---
The US consumed an average of 20.4 million bbl/d in 2004 . Of this,
motor gasoline consumption was 9.0 million bbl/d (or 44% of the
total), distillate fuel oil consumption was 4.1 million bbl/d (20%),
jet fuel consumption was 1.6 million bbl/d (8%), and residual fuel
oil consumption was 0.8 million bbl/d (4%)l. Total 2005 petroleum
demand is projected to grow by just 1.4% (280,000 bbl/d), to an
average 20.7 million bbl/d, in response to the combined effects of
somewhat slower economic growth and relatively high crude oil and
product prices. All the major products (except residual fuel oil) are
expected to contribute to this growth. Motor gasoline demand is
projected to increase 1.8%, to 9.22 million bbl/d.
The United States averaged total net oil (crude and products) imports
of an estimated 11.8 million bbl/d during January-October 2004,
representing around 58% of total U.S. oil demand.
---
Upwards of a million barrels an acre, a billion barrels a square
mile. And the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin, most
of which is in Colorado, covers more than a thousand square miles
- the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world.
IIRC, 640 acres per square mile, but lets use the "billion barrels
per mile^2" figure. Assuming that consumption hasn't climbed since
October of last year, the US imports 4.3 billion barrels per year, so
we will consume this 'new field' (if it yields as well as the article
says) in 232 years.
However, domestic oil production is falling, fast. (US production
peak happened back in the 1970s.) In order to completely supply US
consumption, with no change in consumption habits, we would chew
through over 20 acres per day to completely supply domestic needs,
and the entire field would last a mere 50 years. US oil production
hasn't stopped, but its falling fast, so lets say this field allows
us to remain energy independent for as much as another 100 years.
One downside of this would be the results of another 100 years of the
current carbon load going into the environment. The US is
responsible for 24% of the world's human-caused carbon output now,
and without decreasing our dependence on carbon-based forms of energy
(coal, oil, etc), will continue to push nearly 6 billion metric tons
of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
For any number of reasons, conservation would seem a better path.
Good luck getting people out of their SUVs (the smallest of "first
steps".)
jim
On Sep 12, 2005, at 2:01 PM, David Farber wrote:
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Robert C. Atkinson" <rca53@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: September 12, 2005 6:40:44 PM EDT
To: David Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Oil Independence?
This is a promising development. Excerpts below, full link:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/news_columnists/article/
0,1299,DRMN_86_4051709,00.html
What do IP skeptics say?
Shell's method, which it calls "in situ conversion," is simplicity
itself in concept but exquisitely ingenious in execution. Terry
O'Connor, a vice president for external and regulatory affairs at
Shell Exploration and Production, explained how it's done (and
they have done it, in several test projects):
Drill shafts into the oil-bearing rock. Drop heaters down the
shaft. Cook the rock until the hydrocarbons boil off, the lightest
and most desirable first. Collect them.
Please note, you don't have to go looking for oil fields when
you're brewing your own.
.
Upwards of a million barrels an acre, a billion barrels a square
mile. And the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin, most
of which is in Colorado, covers more than a thousand square miles
- the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world.
Wow.
They don't need subsidies; the process should be commercially
feasible with world oil prices at $30 a barrel. The energy balance
is favorable; under a conservative life-cycle analysis, it should
yield 3.5 units of energy for every 1 unit used in production. The
process recovers about 10 times as much oil as mining the rock and
crushing and cooking it at the surface, and it's a more desirable
grade. Reclamation is easier because the only thing that comes to
the surface is the oil you want.
--
***************************************
Robert C. Atkinson
Director of Policy Research
Columbia Institute for Tele-Information (CITI)
1A Uris Hall, Columbia Business School
3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027-6902
212-854-7576
cell: 908-447-4201
***************************************
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