[IP] more on "War on Terra" saves few lives, expert says
Begin forwarded message:
From: Brian Smithson <brian@xxxxxxxx>
Date: September 12, 2005 5:10:47 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "War on Terra" saves few lives, expert says
Dave,
A comment on a recent IP posting, for IP if you like.
I find it beyond preposterous that anyone can seriously assert that
nobody -- NOBODY -- except Tom Clancy forecast the use of a
commercial airliner as a suicide attack vehicle.
By itself, the 8/6/2001 PDB "Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US"
should have provided enough connectible dots to forecast such a
scenario: (1) intention to conduct terrorist attacks in the US, (2)
intention to use operatives who are based in the US, (3) intention to
hijack US aircraft, (4) preparations for other kinds of attacks such
as surveillance of Federal buildings in NYC, (5) plans to attack
using explosives, and even (6) references to the World Trade Center
and Washington DC.
Then there were reports of al Qaeda followers seeking flight training
in various locations. Why would al Qaeda be doing that? One would
need little imagination to figure that out, given their previous
suicide attacks using explosive-laden boats.
What else was needed, a frigging flight plan!?
I am sick to death of hearing apologists go on and on about how
nobody could have anticipated the tragic disasters that have befallen
our current government, from 9/11 to Iraq to NOLA. Such statements
ring with the same deafening cognitive dissonance as "nobody
anticipated the levees would be breached". I am inclined not to
attribute such massive failures to lack of information, coordination,
imagination, or capability, but instead I attribute them to refusal
to listen, misplaced focus of attention, agenda-driven priorities,
and a policy of rewarding blindly loyal dilettantes over competent,
experienced experts.
I'm not involved in government or life-critical matters, I am just a
lowly technology project manager. But I can say that in my line of
work, where failures may only result in some lost revenues or or a
tarnished corporate reputation, I would expect to be FIRED ON THE
SPOT for such gross incompetence as has been repeatedly displayed by
Bush's administration and appointees.
And it is there that I must be lacking in imagination, because I
cannot imagine why the highest office in our country and so-called
leader of the free world should be held to a lower standard of
integrity and competence than I am.
[Ralph Hitchens said...]
Mr. Bray was right about one thing, even if Mr. Fairlie denies
it. Only Tom Clancy (in "Debt of Honor," I believe, published in
1994) forecast the use of a commercial airliner in a suicide
terrorist exploit. Yes, there have been many airline hijackings
in recent decades but to my knowledge no one in the intelligence
community (in which I worked for most of the last 20 years) or
anywhere else put forward a scenario that resembled Clancy's.
Had anyone done so, our counter-terrorism analysts would have had
something to work with. It's not likely that an airline pilot
could be induced -- even at gunpoint -- to fly into a building, so
al-Qaeda would need its own pilots. Flying an airliner is not
something you learn at your average flight school; you need to
attend one of a relatively small number of major flight schools
that provide training in large transport-category jets. Nearly
all the students at these schools work for airlines or large
corporate operators, as the cost of this training is prohibitive.
The Phoenix FBI office had the right idea in its now-famous memo,
but it was "too little, too late." Had the Clancy scenario been
taken seriously a few years earlier, I have no doubt that the
relative handful of unaffiliated students of Middle Eastern origin
could have been identified and investigated long before 9/11.
Scenario-based forecasting doesn't seem to be widely used in the
Intelligence Community, from my experience. It's a domain that
places the highest value on inductive reasoning.
Ralph Hitchens
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