[IP] Statistical Question
Begin forwarded message:
From: Ken Deifik <kenneth.d@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: November 3, 2004 11:34:32 AM EST
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Statistical Question
Dave,
It occurs to me that one of the questions that could be answered
without too much trouble, at least for someone with lots of access to
data and a knowlege of statistics, would be: is there any difference in
the Bush - Kerry percentages in precincts that used eVoting, especially
Diebold but all eVoting machines, as opposed to those that used paper
ballots or some other method of voting. If this question has any
meaning for you, I'd ask you to pose to the list, to see anyone with
the proper skills and access could carry out such a study.
I hope in the next few days statisticians examine the issue of the
exit polls. Since the early 70's the exit polls have always been spot
on. I feel ashamed for any journalist who says the exit polls got it
wrong in FLA in 2000, because it is clear they got it right.
I have to wonder how John Zogby, who predicted 312 electoral votes for
Kerry at 5PM EST 11/2, could have gotten the exit polls so wrong. Or
really if he did.
You might wish to know that CNN only changed its exit polls in Ohio
from Kerry favorable to Bush favorable early on 11/3.
You can see a screenshot of the Kerry favorable at
http://tinyurl.com/42qbv . It is time-stamped 12:21 AM. An hour and
20 minutes later it's suddenly got Bush way ahead in the exit polls.
http://tinyurl.com/568vo
I just found this posting in the Democratic Underground site
...on several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has EVoting but no
paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when
comparing exit polls to actual results.
In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their EVoting, the exit
poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of
error.
So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits
vs.
A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.
Anyway, best regards,
Ken Deifik
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