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[IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango



Begin forwarded message:

From: Bob Schmidt <schmidt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 15, 2006 12:04:41 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

Dave, for IP if you wish.


You will NOT get into the "friends list
of your friends (stored on youtube/skyblog/<current local culturaly
accepted brand), and therefore your friends will not be "alerted" when
you update your site, wich means that they will not "comment" on your
site.
i.e. your'e out.
But you're out in 4 years anyway because the next crowd won't want to have anything to do with whatever the last crowd thought was "cool". Fashion is fickle. Experiential appetites are insatiable, always looking for the next new "novel high." It has ever been thus.
There will be a successor to Myspace and You Tube, just as surely as they were the successors to Geocities and the "personal home pages" of the 90's, and just as surely as XBox replaced Doom which replaced Mario Bros. which replaced Pong.
Today, their half lives are about as long as Moore's law and the IRR is more or less the inverse of (50% loss of value every 18 mos.). Google can swallow these things because any one of them represents a small portion of its value. But that has ever been thus. One day, Google may turn out the be the new AOL - an online Walmart so big that no acquisition is large enough to move the needle on growth. 


At 08:50 AM 10/14/2006, David Farber wrote:



Begin forwarded message:

From: Patrick Sinz <patrick_sinz@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 14, 2006 3:13:05 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

<snip>


Frankly, I'm astonished at the prices that have been paid for MySpace
and YouTube.  If these were physical, or at least persistent, assets
that would be one thing.  They aren't.  Kids have always been smarter
than "Grups" give them credit for.  If the media barons become too
invasive with the ads, everyone will just fade away to another meeting 
place on the net, and Murdoch and company will be left holding the
(now
empty) bag.

It is also obvious that peer pressure has no impact on the kids, as
demonstrated by the fact that almost NO teen ager is wearing overprices branded shoes, and the constant infringment on their privacy has driven all of them (except some of the more dimwitted ones) away from MSN/ AIM. 
Scott
Unfortunatelly the level of "pain" that the "media barrons" can inflict 
on users of something like youtube (or skyblog) is not linked to the
service itself, but to the service + the fact that all the other kids
are using the same platform.
So if for instance you are using the "really nice and cool peoples video 
blogging platform" vs youtube. You will NOT get into the "friends list
of your friends (stored on youtube/skyblog/<current local culturaly
accepted brand), and therefore your friends will not be "alerted" when
you update your site, wich means that they will not "comment" on your
site.
i.e. your'e out.

And as a final comment 1.6 Billion US$ is about 6 times the price of
Mirabilis (and if I remember well Mirabilis was paid for in cash vs
stocks for youtubes).
I'd be very surprised if the "size" of the internet has not been
multiplied by more than 6 in the past 8 years.
Moreover I do believe that AOL would not have any hope of morphing from 
a modem access provider into a content provider without the leverage
that ICQ gave them.
(so who will be able to afford 10 Billion US$ for the "next big network 
effect based thing" in 2012 ?)





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