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[IP] more on China Builds a Better Internet



Begin forwarded message:

From: David Cowhig <david.cowhig@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: September 26, 2006 8:29:48 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on China Builds a Better Internet
A chapter in the PRC book "Technology Foresight 2005" [2005 Jishu Yujian Baobao] from the Chinese Academy of Science has a chapter on IPv6 and China. My translation of some excerpts is copied below. Publication information on the book (in Chinese) is at this URL: http://www.sciencep.com/sciencep/publish/bookdetails.php? searchingbookid=14416 

David Cowhig

Technology Foresight Report 2005 [Jishu Yujian Baogao]
Edited by the Technology Foresight Report Committee as part of the “Foresight on Chinese Technology Over the Next Twenty Years” under the Chinese Academy of Sciences Knowledge Innovation Project [Zhishi Chuangxin Gongcheng]
Beijing, July 2005, Science Publishing Company [Kexue Chubanshe http://www.sciencep.com]. 

ISBN 7-03-015636-6

Publisher information on this book is here .
Technology Foresight 2005 is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences "Science and Technology Foresight" series of reports. This 500 page report published in July 2005 by CAS surveys the state of world technology in many important fields and comments on where China is in each technology and where China is likely to go in that technology over the next decade. The book is divided into eight chapters of roughly fifty pages each on: 


Translation of excerpt from Chapter 9, “Network Technology”
By Li Zhongcheng, Computer Technology Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences
1.2 As the internet and communications network merge all along the line from the technology level to the business level, the Internet Protocol will be become the Core Transmission Protocol
In the future, all the networks will merge, be they wired networks or wireless networks into a great merged network all using the internet protocol. This will enable to realize the dream of “communicating with anyone at anytime and anyplace”. In this process, IP version 6 (IPv6) will gradually replace IP version 4 (IPv4) as the core internet protocol.
The IPv4, which was developed over twenty years ago, has difficulty solving the problems such as speed and security of the large, high speed networks of today. The problem of compatibility of IPv6 with IPv4 is being resolved after several years of development which is now moving into the implementation stage. Over the next five to ten years, IPv4 will gradually give way to IPv6. The factor pushing the implementation of IPv6 is the exhaustion of IP addresses and the overloading of routing tables. IPv6 is also designed to solve some other problems of internet development such as the quality of service during real-time data transmission, the security problems that are worsening daily, and the demand for mobile communications with anyone. The demand for IP addresses is very tight in China and East Asia and so the need to move to IPv6 is greatest there. In particular, the very rapid growth of the wireless communications in China, which now has more cell telephone users than any other country. The next generation networks, relying on the internet protocol as its core technology, will make IP addresses an important resource, and therefore a bottleneck for the development of the internet and communications industry.
The next generation network will be the heart of the information society of the future. IPv6 will be its soul. The communications industry based on the IPv6 will be the largest sector of the information industry. Preliminary estimates predict that its market value will exceed US 1 trillion. Therefore, promoting the development of IPv6 technologies will be important for the development of China’s information industry and for China’s overall competitiveness. It will also be important for economic, political, military and cultural development of Chinese society. All the developed countries and regions of the world have set their own plans for developing IPv6.
The development of the next generation internet is a gold opportunity for all the countries of the world. The UK, Germany, France, Japan, Canada and other developed countries, in addition to large education and science and technology networks built and operated using government investments, are also making very large investments on research on the next generation of internet. Because of the shortage of IP addresses, China has an especially strong demand for IPv6.
Under the IPv4 framework, development of the Chinese internet and its entire IT industry is severely limited. For historical reasons, China is far behind the United States in research on technologies, standards setting, product development and many other areas. IPv6 gives China a good opportunity to narrow this gap. More IP addresses will fundamentally resolve the problem the bottleneck that is hindering the development of the Chinese internet and IT industry. IPv6 will enable China to set out with the rest of the world from the same starting line and be competitive internationally. IPv4 address shortage, its large population base, and the rapid expansion of the internet will make it easier for China to become an early adopter of IPv6. That will become an advantage across the board through early adoption of IPv6 applications in China, promotion of IPv6 research, and product development and applications. This will put China in an advantageous position in the international competition to develop the internet. 


---
Other chapters in Technology Foresight 2005

* Information technology;
* Biotechnology and pharmaceuticals;
* Materials science and technology;
* Energy technology;
* Key technological problems within information technology such as fourth generation mobile communications systems, computer security and micro photo-mechanical-electronic systems; * Key technological problems in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals such as high throughput gene expression technology, microorganism metabolism technologies from molecular machines to cellular factories; * Key technological problems.in materials science and technology including achieving solar cells with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 50%; and * Key technological problems in energy technology such as China's clean coal technology and oil extraction technologies on floating offshore oil platforms. 



David Farber wrote:




Begin forwarded message:

From: WWWhatsup <joly@xxxxxxx>
Date: September 25, 2006 4:31:41 PM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: more on China Builds a Better Internet
[I fwded those 'China' posts to the isoc members list gaining the following response] 


From: Fred Baker <fred@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: more on China Builds a Better Internet
Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2006 10:53:14 -0700





2) We continue to consume IPv4 addresses at a steady, if not
accelerating rate. There are of course continuing debates as to
exactly when we will "run out" of IPv4 addresses (and what that
means), but instead of being "decades" away, the proverbial light
at the end of the tunnel can be seen. Fairly conservative estimates
point to only 6 years left.



for the record, those estimates measure different things. Hain's
estimates suggest that we will allocate the last IPv4 address (eg,
IANA will allocate to an RIR who will allocate to an ISP, who will
start thinking about how to use it) in the 2009 timeframe, while
Huston's estimates measure announcements in BGP from ISPs, and last I
heard were in the 2013 timeframe. There is a built-in lag between the
events, generally on the order of 1-2 years. So suppose that Tony is
a year early and Geoff is a year late - in that case, they pretty
much agree. The "last" IPv4 would be allocated in 2010 and announced
in 2012.

From my perspective there is another scenario that is much more
important. That is that the fundamental rules of economics govern
IPv4 and IPv6 addresses just like they cover any other finite
resource. In such systems, one can expect that in the beginning, when
supply far outstrips demand and nobody really cares, we will probably
do some fairly stupid things - like assign them in class blocks. When
demand approximates supply, we can expect a market to develop and for
an improvement in our intelligence to set in, such as happened with
RFCs 1518 and 1918. As demand starts to significantly exceed supply,
we can expect to see regulation of that market, and I would invite
you to take a look at your favorite RIR's rules for allocation of
IPv4 address space. Without getting dramatic, I think it is fair to
say that you have to have some pretty good proof that you used your
previous allocation well and have a strong likelihood of using the
new one well. In the final stages, a black market develops, one in
which theft occurs (http://www.completewhois.com/hijacked/ hijacked_qa.htm), lawsuits are filed (For those interested, you may read the Kremen vs ARIN lawsuit here: http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache: 44uxmnEmJVkJ:www.internetgovernance.org/pdf/kremen.pdf+Kremen+Vs +ARIN&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1 ), and the commodity is directly traded 
among participants in the market at higher prices. The "price" of an
IP address may not be a monetary cost, but in headaches encountered.

In the final analysis, I don't think we will ever allocate the "last"
IPv4 address. We will "price" them, for some definition of pricing,
so high that nobody will be able to afford them.




I do wish people would stop propagating that "MIT has more IP
addresses than all of china" meme.



To my shame, I'm the guy who originated that. When I showed the slide
at ChinaInet 2000 that asserted that (and got the name of the school
wrong), it was true. But my point was not that APNIC had committed
some form of wrong-doing. That slide was one in a series that argued
that China, where I was giving the talk, needed to get serious about
Internet deployment, and that specifically to address the needs of a
population of 1.5 billion people it would have to move in the
direction of an IP address space with that many addresses - as
adjusted by the H ratio. They needed to move into IPv6 as IPv4 would
not have the address space they needed.

I have seen that slide in talks selling my competitor's product,
slides selling the ITU as an even broker in the Internet Governance
debate (which I will believe after I find +886 in the enum database;
geo-politics is keeping a recognized PSTN country code out of the
enum database because the relevant communication region's status as a
country is disputed and they are not a member of the ITU), and
others. In most cases, I wonder whether they even know the origin of
the slide.

Of course, at this point China has quite a few more addresses than it
did then. But the entire unallocated IPv4 address space doesn't have
enough addresses to represent the Chinese educational system, much
less China as a whole. The original argument is still valid.


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WWWhatsup NYC
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