Begin forwarded message: From: Simon Higgs <simon@xxxxxxxxx> Date: August 25, 2006 3:32:05 AM EDT To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx Subject: Re: more on : The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall .. Reply-To: simon@xxxxxxxxxRecalls never happen without a sound business case for them. It's a risk management strategy. The manufacturer weighs the risk of lawsuits (or similarly damaging events) versus the actual cost of the recall. Whichever is the cheaper route for the manufacturer is the route chosen.
6 million laptop batteries have a retail cost of around $774,000,000 (based on 13" Macbook battery at $129). Assuming a manufacturing cost of $15 each, this is about $90,000,000. Whatever the real reasons, it's cheaper to pay nearly $100,000,000 in recalls than it is to preserve the status quo and only make payouts on the quiet.
My guess, and this is only a guess, is that this was prompted by the recent ban of laptops in carry-on luggage on aircraft. With a laptop in the cabin, if it's battery caught fire, there would be humans (and fire extinguishers) nearby to put out the fire. With laptops being carried in baggage, the risk of 20 (using Lauren's figure) in 6 million batteries catching fire becomes only 1 in 300,000.
Given that there are about 30,000 commercial flights per day in the US (and about 5,000 airborne at any given moment), it's not too far fetched to assume that eventually an unattended battery fire will bring down a commercial airliner. Or two. That's the risk that exceeds $100,000,000 and was what prompted (I think) the recall.
Simon David Farber wrote:
Begin forwarded message: From: Lauren Weinstein <lauren@xxxxxxxxxx> Date: August 24, 2006 4:17:00 PM EDT To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx Cc: lauren@xxxxxxxxxx Subject: The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall .. Dave, not to downplay the seriousness of fires or even slightly singed laps, but it never hurts to look more closely at the numbers. According to the media reports, between Dell and Apple we're talking about around 6 million notebook batteries, and (at least based on the current U.S. figures I've seen) under 20 total cases of overheating (and far fewer actual fires). Of course, there's always the risk of future events related to these batteries, many of which have been in use for quite some time. But still, do the math and it appears that the odds of getting "burned" by one of these batteries is pretty damn low, *much* lower than the odds of many other bad things happening (see http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm ). This isn't to say that defective products are a good thing, but trying to keep such risks in perspective is a useful exercise. --Lauren-- Lauren Weinstein lauren@xxxxxxxxxx or lauren@xxxxxxxx Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800 http://www.pfir.org/lauren Co-Founder, PFIR - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org Co-Founder, IOIC - International Open Internet Coalition - http://www.ioic.net Moderator, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com DayThink: http://daythink.vortex.com ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as simon@xxxxxxxxx To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ipArchives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting- people/
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