[IP] The Odds -- Re: Dell & Apple recall ..
Begin forwarded message:
From: "RJR RJRiley.com" <RJR@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:56:57 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: The Odds -- Re: Dell & Apple recall ..
Dave, for IP if you wish.
Average life cycle temperatures play a big role in when products
fail. This
is probably one reason that this problem is apparently more severe in
Dell
products. My understanding is that Dell charges the batteries at a
higher
rate than other companies. This means that failure rate increases as a
function of both the age of the battery and the total life cycle stress.
Older batteries will probably have a much higher likelihood of a
catastrophic failure.
When things go wrong it is the nature of corporate culture to first
place
the blame outside the company. In this case the goat is Sony. But
is this
all Sony's fault? Does the way Dell uses the batteries contribute to
them
failing? I think there is a high probability that Dell is culpable.
Even
if the whole problem was Sony's fault I think that Dell's handling of
the
situation was at best poor. According to media coverage of a whistle
blowing ex-employee Dell has known about this problem for a few
years. That
is going to be very difficult for Dell to explain away.
There are many reasons to think that this issue is more about Dell's
less
than competent engineering skills than about Sony. It is simple, it
appears
that Sony batteries are used elsewhere without the scope of problems
seen
with Dell products. I did talk to the Consumer Product Safety
Commission
(CPSC) a few weeks ago and they were pushing the manufacturing defect
line.
I think that Dell has lobbied CPSC and otherwise worked hard to shift
blame
and that CPSC has bought their arguments. But when contingency
litigators
sue Dell all will be revealed during discovery. Discovery is a very
powerful tool for getting at the truth. I think that Dell is in serious
trouble. And their trouble is as much caused by apparent attempts to
suppress this scandal as it is caused by their engineering oversights.
My corporate experience leads me to believe that fault goes all the
way to
the top at Dell. But experience also has taught me that when placing
blame
outside the company is no longer possible that some unfortunate
person at
Dell will be made the scapegoat. If and when Dell does this that person
will likely find a home as an expert witness for those who are
extracting
retribution from Dell for their deficiencies.
I think it is very poor public policy for corporations to sit on
information
when there is risk of maiming or killing customers. This year or two
delay
in coming clean is what bothers me the most.
Ronald J Riley, Exec. Dir. Ronald J Riley, President
InventorEd, Inc. Professional Inventors
Alliance
www.InventorEd.org www.PIAUSA.org
RJR"at"InvEd.org RJR"at"PIAUSA.org
Change "at" to @ Change "at" to @
RJR Direct # (202) 318-1595
-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber [mailto:dave@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, August 24, 2006 4:24 PM
To: ip@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: more on : The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..
Begin forwarded message:
From: Lauren Weinstein <lauren@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:17:00 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Cc: lauren@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..
Dave, not to downplay the seriousness of fires or even slightly
singed laps,
but it never hurts to look more closely at the numbers.
According to the media reports, between Dell and Apple we're talking
about
around 6 million notebook batteries, and (at least based on the
current U.S.
figures I've seen) under 20 total cases of overheating (and far fewer
actual
fires). Of course, there's always the risk of future events related to
these batteries, many of which have been in use for quite some time.
But still, do the math and it appears that the odds of getting
"burned" by
one of these batteries is pretty damn low, *much* lower than the odds of
many other bad things happening (see http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm ).
This isn't to say that defective products are a good thing, but
trying to
keep such risks in perspective is a useful exercise.
--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lauren@xxxxxxxxxx or lauren@xxxxxxxx
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
- People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org Co-
Founder,
IOIC
- International Open Internet Coalition - http://www.ioic.net
Moderator,
PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com Member, ACM Committee on
Computers and
Public Policy Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
DayThink: http://daythink.vortex.com
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