[IP] some other semi-random thoughts
Begin forwarded message:
From: Gene Spafford <spaf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: August 10, 2006 8:16:02 PM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: More for IP
Here are some other semi-random thoughts for the readership.
Several major US airlines are in bankruptcy court, and several
outside the US are in real trouble. A few have made huge cuts to
pensions and operations to enable them to survive. A few are
struggling even with that (I seem to recall Delta and Northwest
having the most problems?). I suspect that many business travelers
will simply stop traveling rather than consign their laptops and cell
phones to unlocked luggage. And how many parents will want to take
their kids on board planes for vacations with such a climate of fear
and restriction? This may be the death knell for a few airlines.
In the US we have (as a nation) done a fair job of dismantling the
national train system, so that isn't an alternative. However, in
Europe and some other places, train travel is quite reasonable. The
Boston-NY-DC trains are still reasonable in the US. So, the people
who don't fly may start taking the trains, and then they are a target
similar to what happened in Madrid and the London Underground. How
long before TSA has checkpoints and no carry-ons for trains?
Want to drive? Odds are you are more at risk behind the wheel than
on a plane. And the gas prices soaring while the Alaskan pipeline is
down and our national policy (in the US) seems to be to further
antagonize the countries where we might import oil.... And think of
the massive waste of time to drive even between two nearly major
metropolitan centers....
On the upside, video conferencing is actually not too bad. Apple may
see a surge in purchases simply to use Leopard's upcoming group video
chat facilities!
Of course, no matter how bad the effects, they would have been many
times worse had the attacks succeeded.
Dealing with the antisocial terrorists -- and especially the suicidal
ones -- and balancing risk vs. reward in our defenses may well
determine whether the world economy tips into something very
unpleasant in the next few years. And if that happens, no one is
likely to be immune anywhere in the world unless they already have
nothing to lose.
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