[IP] Cato Paper on Terrorism: A False Sense of Insecurity?
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger@xxxxxxx>
Date: August 8, 2006 4:17:14 PM EDT
To: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, David Farber
<dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Cato Paper on Terrorism: A False Sense of Insecurity?
Paper originally pointed to by Bruce Schneier as an "Interesting
Paper": (http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/
cato_on_the_ris.html)
Actual Paper PDF: http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv27n3/
v27n3-5.pdf
Boing Boing article:
Only traitors try to make us afraid of terrorists
http://www.boingboing.net/2006/08/07/only_traitors_try_to.html
In this mind-blowing, exhaustively researched Cato institute paper by
Ohio State University's John Mueller, the case against being afraid
of terrorism is laid out in irrefutable logic, backed with credible,
documented statistics about terrorism's risks. From the number of
fatalities produced by terrorism to the trends in terrorism death to
the fact that almost no one has ever died from a military biological
agent to the fact that poison gas and dirty bombs in the field do
only minor damage -- this paper is the most reassuring and
infuriating piece of analysis I've read since September 11th, 2001.
The bottom line is, terrorism doesn't kill many people. Even in
Israel, you're four times more likely to die in a car wreck than as a
result of a terrorist attack. In the USA, you need to be more worried
about lightning strikes than terrorism. The point of terrorism is to
create terror, and by cynically convincing us that our very countries
are at risk from terrorism, our politicians have delivered utter
victory to the terrorists: we are terrified.
Much of the current alarm is generated from the knowledge that
many of today's terrorists simply want to kill, and kill more
or less randomly, for revenge or as an act of what they take
to be The shock and tragedy of September 11 does demand a
focused and dedicated program to confront international
terrorism and to attempt to prevent a repeat.
But it seems sensible to suggest that part of this reaction
should include an effort by politicians, officials, and the
media to inform the public reasonably and realistically about
the terrorist context instead of playing into the hands of
terrorists by frightening the public.
What is needed, as one statistician suggests, is some sort of
convincing, coherent, informed, and nuanced answer to a
central question: "How worried should I be?" Instead, the
message the nation has received so far is, as a Homeland
Security official put (or caricatured) it, "Be scared; be
very, very scared -- but go on with your lives." Such
messages have led many people to develop what Leif Wenar of
the University of Sheffield has aptly labeled "a false sense
of insecurity."
Author of the paper:
John Muellerholds the Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies
at the Mershon Center at Ohio State University. His most recent book,
The Remnants of War, has just been published by Cornell University
Press. He may be contacted by e-mail at bbbb@xxxxxxxx
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Robert J. Berger - Internet Bandwidth Development, LLC.
Voice: 408-882-4755 eFax: +1-408-490-2868
http://www.ibd.com
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