[IP] dsl prime item
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger@xxxxxxx>
Date: June 8, 2006 1:57:12 PM EDT
To: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, David Farber
<dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
From Dave Burstein's DSL Prime newsletter of June 8, 2006:
http://www.dslprime.com
ADSL is so last century. Today, it's fiber home or fiber + VDSL at
50 meg or more. Japan is the first country to see a major drop in DSL
as 5 million switch to fiber home, and Germany, France, Holland,
Verizon and (new) the city of Seattle all are moving to upload speeds
of 10 meg or more and downloads of 50 meg or more. Cable knows this,
which is why Brian Roberts of Comcast tells me they’ll be rolling
out 50 meg down, 15 meg up “pre-DOCSIS 3.0” in 2007 in selected
markets.
Meanwhile, Australia, Canada, and more than half of the U.S.
are likely to spend the next decade with a second-rate Internet, 60%
to 90% slower than leading countries. Anywhere people have a choice
at a plausible price, they are buying faster speeds than the 6 meg
down, 600K meg up of ADSL available since 1999, or even the 20 meg
down, 1 meg up of the new generation. Wall Street is asking whether
laggards like AT&T will be clobbered. (Answer: the only thing that
might prevent a disaster is if cable also moves slowly. Two
competitors often collude.) On the other hand, Japan is replacing
ADSL with fiber, over 4 million already connected. So is Germany,
France, Holland, Verizon and (news) the city of Seattle.
The fix is set in D.C. for the House to pass a national video
franchise for the telcos, probably on Friday. The main impact of the
bill will be to reduce, not expand, the telco TV rollouts, but expect
some uninformed reporters not to catch that. The telcos think they
are dead if they don't have TV to challenge cables, and Verizon CEO
Ivan Seidenberg has been consistently clear he will build whatever
the regs. SBC's CTO told reporters the same thing. That makes any
claim of "increased competition" simply stupidity, especially for the
10-20 million Americans the bill allows denying service to. The
biggest payoff for the Bells is getting out of local requirements for
near-universal service and consumer protection. Real Net Neutrality
rules won't be included, although Verizon's Tom Tauke is looking for
a "feel good" compromise that won't mean anything.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Robert J. Berger - Internet Bandwidth Development, LLC.
Voice: 408-882-4755 eFax: +1-408-490-2868
http://www.ibd.com
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