[IP] more on Retrospective analyses of Y2K
Begin forwarded message:
From: Joel M Snyder <Joel.Snyder@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: May 31, 2006 2:35:06 PM EDT
To: doug@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: brian.randell@xxxxxxxxx, dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] Retrospective analyses of Y2K
Doug:
I strongly agree with the 'shifting budget' argument. I have long
said that one of the reasons that people saw such a slowdown is that
there was this enormous bump of people refreshing ALL their PCs and
servers in 98/99 and then they just didn't need to buy them in
2000/2001/2002. So if you looked at the graph up to 99, you
predicted a lot of "hockey stick up and to the right" spending, which
was really anomalous.
I'm not sure how much that can be blamed for other ills within the
economy, but I think your argument is supportable (with other
evidence, of course).
I have taken the current SarbOx/GLBA and associated a new phrase with
it; I have been using it in lectures: "It's Y2K all over again."
This means that people are able to go into their CFO's office, throw
a Purchase Requisition under his/her nose, and say "this is for
regulatory compliance" and BOOM out comes the cash.
So the question to research (and fairly quickly) is: is this true?
And, if so, can your conclusions about Y2K spending be fast-forward
applied to 2005/2006 spending in IT? Is there another boom/bust that
technology companies, especially those in the security space, are
going to see?
I suspect not entirely, because regulatory compliance is of smaller
scope than "every single company in the world," but there is some
parallel.
jms
--
Joel M Snyder, 1404 East Lind Road, Tucson, AZ, 85719
Phone: +1 520 324 0494 (voice) +1 520 324 0495 (FAX)
jms@xxxxxxxxx http://www.opus1.com/jms Opus One
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