[IP] more on Signs of a bubble?
Begin forwarded message:
From: Kevin Marks <kevinmarks@xxxxxxx>
Date: December 8, 2005 5:03:26 AM EST
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] Signs of a bubble?
On Dec 7, 2005, at 6:43 AM, David Farber wrote:
From: Tristan Louis <tristan@xxxxxxx>
As we near the end of the year, I realized that it's been about half a
decade since the bubble burst on the dotcom world. At the same
time, it
seems that a number of similar bubble signs may be showing up again.
I responded to Tristan here:
http://epeus.blogspot.com/
2005_12_01_epeus_archive.html#113394502353153827
The one that I look for, which I derived from reading Michael Lewis's
Liar's Poker, and from my experiences in the CD-ROM publishing
business in the mid 90's is this simple rule:
When expensively educated, fashionable young graduates start showing
up in your field, you're in a bubble.
Lewis describes this in the investment banking business, when his
entire Yale graduating class applied to become investment bankers.
The trouble with this indicator is that if you aren't looking for it
it seem like the natural order of things - of course having
personable young things hanging on your every word is to be expected
- finally you're getting the recognition you deserve!
In practice, however, the finely-tuned herd instincts that get
selected for in the Ivy League or the posher UK universities make
them flock to the latest bubble.
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