[IP] Viterbi skeptical of broadband wireless potential
Begin forwarded message:
From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 28, 2005 7:06:45 AM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Viterbi skeptical of broadband wireless potential
Reply-To: dewayne@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[Note: This item comes from reader Mike Cheponis. This looks to me
to be the viewpoint of someone who can only see the world through the
eyes of the mobile phone. Also a clear instance of Arthur C.
Clarke's First Law. See: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%
27s_law>. DLH]
Viterbi skeptical of broadband wireless potential
Dylan McGrath
(10/27/2005 1:00 PM EDT)
URL: <http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=172900922>
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Broadband wireless technology is likely to
remain too cost prohibitive to ever achieve user numbers close to the
2 billion people who currently use mobile phones, according to Andrew
Viterbi, co-founder of Qualcomm and currently president of the
Viterbi Group LLC, a technology advisory and investment company.
Delivering a keynote address here Wednesday (Oct. 26) at the GSPx
signal processing conference, Viterbi said broadband wireless could
provide a "nomadic desktop experience" for business and professional
users, but that high-speed wireless connectivity is not necessary for
the majority of applications that consumers are interested in.
Ultimately, he said, the user base for broadband wireless would peak
at "hundreds of millions," rather than billions, of users.
"A lot of the dumb things that people do don't take that much
bandwidth," Viterbi said, referring to applications such as gaming.
Applications such as two-way gaming and video conferencing, which
would require the speed of broadband wireless, will not appeal to a
wide enough base of users to bring down the cost of broadband
wireless, Viterbi said. While consumers would not necessarily say
that they do not want broadband wireless functionality, he said, they
would not be willing to pay an extra $50 a month or more for this
capability.
Viterbi acknowledged that the situation is not the same in Europe as
it is in the U.S. or the rest of the world. European carriers paid
dearly for the additional spectrum required for broadband wireless in
2000, he said, and will likely push harder to make low-cost consumer
terminals available for its use in order to capture some return on
their investment.
One application that people have been counting on to support the need
for broadband wireless is high-quality audio and video broadcast. But
Viterbi expressed doubt that people would be interested enough in
this capability to justify paying the additional cost.
"We are going to get broadcast, and that is going to need high
speed," he said. "But we've had audio broadcast for 100 years and
video broadcast for 50 years, so what's new?"
Meanwhile, companies keep moving to bring broadband wireless to the
market. Motorola Inc. and Intel Corp. Thursday agreed to collaborate
to advance the use of mobile WiMAX technology, based on the proposed
IEEE 802.16e standard, for both fixed and wireless broadband
applications.
Earlier this month, mobile communications industry pioneer Marty
Cooper warned that broadband wireless blanket coverage could be
disruptive to the business, referencing recent announcements by
Google and Earthlink that they are prepared to offer blanket Wi-Fi
coverage across San Francisco and Philadelphia, respectively.
Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>
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