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[IP] From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.



Begin forwarded message:

From: Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 5, 2005 10:26:44 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Ip Ip <ip@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [IP] From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.
Neil Munro is polite and condescending, giving the naive children a little pat on the head for their cute beliefs, but he is still wrong. And seriously wrong, spreading a common but false meme that tends to prolong violent conflict all over the world.
There's an obvious and important difference between ending conflict by defeating the other side, making them powerless to fight on, and negotiating peace based on the mutual perception that continued violence isn't approaching either side's goals. The latter is what is happening in Ireland.
As we see in asymmetric conflicts such as Iraq, "fear that the enemy can inflict even greater violence and pain" is doing us little or no good against the insurgents. They are willing to absorb the large amounts of violence, pain, and death our troops are capable of dishing out, particularly knowing that most of it will fall on non- combatant locals, turning them against our side, and helping them recruit more supporters.
To the extent that we are making any progress in Iraq at all, it is through the restraint that our troops often show, allowing them to apply non-violent "weapons" that are more effective than violence. If we can restore and protect the infrastructure, improving the lives of everyday Iraqis, we gain ground. If we can pursuade Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds to participate together in elections, we gain ground. If we can encourage those three distinct groups to think of themselves as Iraqis, and see the insurgents as foreigners, we gain ground. If we can convince the Iraqi people that the insurgents are more responsible for their problems than we are, we gain ground.
The insurgents rely on being able to "swim like fish in the sea of the people" (paraphrasing Mao). When the ordinary people see them as threats to their well-being, and trust the authorities enough to turn them in, the insurgents will be finished.
Certainly, to have the time to accomplish this essentially non- violent change, you have to avoid getting killed in the process. But that kind of self-protection is a far cry from crushing your opponent through violence and pain.
Sainthood is not required. What is required is empowering the great majority of people on all sides who just want to be left alone to tend to their own affairs. And marginalizing politicians who hope to gain power by fanning ethnic hatred. And achieving a level of trust in the civil society, so that ordinary people will act in small ways everywhere to protect it.
It is attitudes like those expressed by Neil Munro that led American leaders to charge into Iraq with guns blazing, believing that the quick defeat of Saddam's army would bring glory and peace. It might have been possible to bring peace and democracy to Iraq. It's even conceivable that it is still possible. But I have seen no evidence that our current national leaders have the least clue how to do it. 

Ben Kuipers


At 7:37 PM -0400 10/5/05, David Farber wrote:


no comment

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Munro, Neil" <NMunro@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 5, 2005 8:57:38 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.


    This is why I love IP.

    In response to my comment that the Brits defeated the IRA,
Gordon Syme wrote that "the decommissioning of IRA weapons was brought
about through peaceful means. The British did not 'defeat' the IRA, that 
implies they won by force. The British and Irish governments realised
many years ago that
the only way to end the problem was peaceful negotiation."

    The ability of nice people to believe that eloquence and
civilized conduct trumps war is delightful, just as children's desire to believe in Santa Claus is delightful. It is certainly much more charming 
than belief in a flat Earth, and is somewhat ennobling.

    But, of course, it is not true. From space we can see the Earth
is round, and with even a modest bit of intellectual effort, we can
address the question 'What made the parties decide to negotiate rather
than seek complete victory via a little extra violence?' As grade- school 
kids recognize, the answer is fear that the enemy can inflict even
greater violence and pain. There is no evidence that man has evolved
into sainthood.

    I do hope Mr. Syme and others can continue to believe in the
diplomatic tooth-fairy, and that US leadership successfully balances
society's need for rough-shouldered force with the natural desire for
the dream of negotiated peace.

    Having received comments from other IP-readers, I know that some
IP-readers recognize the difficulty of this task.

    Like I say, I just love IP.

    Neil
    Born in Dublin, Ireland.



Begin forwarded message:

From: Gordon Syme <gsyme@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 5, 2005 5:04:24 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on High-tech army defeats insurgency; May I
citesome examples?


Professor Farber,

for IP, if you wish:

On Tue, 2005-10-04 at 16:35 -0400, David Farber wrote:



Begin forwarded message:

From: "Munro, Neil" <NMunro@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: October 4, 2005 4:04:53 PM EDT

The Brits defeated the IRA this month
after 25 years and roughly 4,000 deaths.




The decommissioning of IRA weapons was brought about through peaceful
means. The British did not 'defeat' the IRA, that implies they won by
force. The British and Irish governments realised many years ago that
the only way to end the problem was peaceful negotiation.

-Gordon Syme



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--

Benjamin Kuipers, Professor         email:  kuipers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Computer Sciences Department        tel:    1-512-471-9561
University of Texas at Austin       fax:    1-512-471-8885
Austin, Texas 78712 USA             http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~kuipers


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