[IP] A MUST MUST read on the real world of disaster prep
Begin forwarded message:
From: Kelley Greenman <greenman.k@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: September 7, 2005 2:28:07 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "United States of Shame"
Dave,
Firstly, I live in the Tampa Bay region in Florida. I have watched
these debates with interest and despair. I have debated sending this.
I honestly don't have time to get in arguments with people over
minutae. My only interest is to raise some issues about disaster
preparedness, evacuation and blame that people haven't really raised
to my knowledge.
Secondly, I have a background in security awareness training (that's
the people part of security). I've worked with two corporate clients
on disaster recovery and business continuity planning. What are our
mantras?
1). The only secure computer is a dead computer. The only secure
community in a hurricane zone is a dead community. There are always
trade-offs involved. Decisions are made in the real world.
2). You can't prevent disaster, you can only prepare for it and mange
it when and _after_ it happens. It _will_ happen. Should they have
prepared better? Of course! So, should every community in hurricane
territory and beyond. Even after last year's bizarre season, we are
still not adequately prepared in Florida. Here, in Tampa Bay, we
don't have enough shelters, let alone properly stocked shelters.
There isn't the political will to ensure they are, even after last
year. Too many people can simply get in their car or hop on a plane
and leave. Those same people tend to be more powerful political
constituencies.
Moreover, it is quite likely that, even if you aren't a resident of a
coastal community, your own East coast community is ill-prepared for
a hurricane. As we point fingers at three of the poorest states in
the nation, is your state prepared for hurricane damage? Are your
consistencies willing to raise money to be so prepared?
Consider that hurricane Agnes hit Florida's Gulf Coast on June 21,
1972. In Virginia, the remnants of the storm dumped 13.6 inches of
rain on the eastern edge of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The rapid,
voluminous rainfall engorged the waterways of central Virginia and
the James River flooded to record-high levels. The cost? Thirteen
lives and $222 million in damage. In Washington D.C., Maryland, and
Delaware, Agnes caused the death of 22 people. The damage was just
over $110 million. Pennsylvania, a state far, far from Florida, was
hardest hit: 50 people died and the entire state was declared a
disaster area.
Please also note that, when you are reading any documents pertaining
to evacuation orders, it may not be wise to assume that the word
"evacuation" means removing people entirely from the area. Here,
where we face a somewhat similar threat, St. Pete would become an
island. Only a thin strip of land between Belle Aire and Palm Harbor
would be left, a sliver of an island that was once a peninsula. Tampa
and all the communities lining the bay would be deluged.
Under those conditions evacuation means my neighbor merely has to
move in with me to be considered "evacuated." As I understand it, the
same situation held for New Orleans: evacuation did not entail moving
everyone out of the city, but getting as many as possible to move out
voluntarily and then moving people to shelters and the shelters of
last resort.
1. HURRICANE PREDICATION IS NOT PERFECT
In the Gulf region, forecasters can only tell you 36-72 hours in
advance that a hurricane is headed toward a _region_. At that point,
a hurricane's strike zone is several hundred miles wide.
"Forecasters cannot come close to predicting a storm's landfall
accurately beyond 24 hours. Three days before a hurricane hits, the
official forecast can be off by as much as 250 miles in either
direction -- the distance from New Orleans to a point between
Pensacola and Panama City, Fla., to the east and Beaumont, Texas, to
the west."
http://www.nola.com/printer/printer.ssf?/washingaway/leftbehind_3.html
Just ask the residents of Tampa Bay who left in the face of the "big
ones," Hurricanes Charley and Ivan. For Charley, they ended up
weathering the storm in Central Florida. For Ivan, they might have
evacuated everyone out of the area needlessly. In fact, just look at
the path of all of them: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne. They are
lessons in how difficult it would be to evacuate everyone _out of a
city_ in a timely, safe fashion.
2. A PRE-HURRICANE EVACUATION IS NOT A CAKEWALK
a). A 24-hour window for calling a _mandatory_ evacuation is normal
around here. This is partly because of the inaccuracy of early
prediction, partly because of the political constraints on calling
evacuations so early, and partly because of the economic damage.
It takes 72-84 hours to evacuate New Orleans. At that time, Katrina
was first a Cat 1 storm hitting Florida, A tropical storm over land.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168413,00.html
It doesn't make sense to me to have expected any of the local and
state officials to think that they should have started evacuations at
that time.
This is an article published on the day before the hurricane:
http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/
library-88/1125213019249320.xml?nola
b). "Nagin said late Saturday that he's having his legal staff look into
whether he can order a mandatory evacuation of the city, a step he's
been hesitant to do because of potential liability on the part of the
city for closing hotels and other businesses."
http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/
library-88/1125213019249320.xml?nola
3. YOU DON'T REALLY HAVE 24 HOURS TO EVACUATE.
a). Aside from the fact that the strike zone is still 85 miles to the
east or west (so, which way do you go, East, West, North? See
Hurricane Charley if your answer is North from NOLA: Heading directly
ahead of a hurricane further inland, isn't always the wisest move to
make: see Hurricane Charley), it would take quite some time to notify
people and get them to staging areas.
b). My generous guess: it would take 6 hours to get the first bus on
the road. That is generous because you'd be dealing with a population
that isn't prepared:
--rumors would fly; panic would ensue
--it would take time for them to pack
--they would bring pets and problems removing pets from owners would
ensue
--the recalcitrant would cause problems
--you stress your first responders by adding traffic to the roads
Again, we're back to risk management.
c). Do you have gas? In my experience, there often isn't any gasoline
to be had prior to a hurricane. The truckers and tankers stop
delivering to the region.
If you give up all your spare fuel to evacuate out of the city, and
you can't evacuate everyone, are you just leaving yourself with no
fuel to power generators and emergency vehicles? Intelligent people
will disagree.
d). Would you have drivers? In 2002, NOLA discussed using buses to
evacuate at the last minute. At the time, it wasn't clear the drivers
would agree. And, as the article notes, even in Key West, where they
tried such a plan, only 20% showed up to do the driving.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/leftbehind_4.html
Key West!!
e). In the best pre-hurricane conditions, it takes 8 hours to
evacuate to Baton Rouge or Hattiesberg.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/weather/data/ssfstuff/
evacuationguide.html
f). When a storm is large, feeder bands move in: flash floods,
tornadoes, lightening storms, downed power lines, tropical force
winds at 40 MPH that shut down the highways.
This following articles help explain why evacuation of the populace
outside the city was unlikely on such short notice and, even were it
to happen, many would still be left behind. Imagine had Nagin
evacuated, only to use up any fuel he had, only to stress his
emergency responders even more, leaving them even less able to cope
later.
This is not to say that I don't hold the local government
accountable. I do. IT is a tragedy that they don't have well-stocked
evacuation shelters. Should they have saved the buses? Absolutely?
Would they have had fuel? I don't know. Should they have reserves of
fuel? Probably.
I'm not surprised, however. Here in Florida, we use our schools for
the evacuation centers. They are not prepared to handle people more
for longer than a three day stay. This isn't a wise strategy given
what Tampa Bay faces were it to contend with the "big one."
We should probably ask ourselves: Were it our community, would we (do
we) have the political will to raise the revenues or shift spending
to prepare for such a disaster?
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialreports/hurricanes/
vulnerablecities/
America's Vulnerable Cities (A special report at weather.com) These
articles are especially instructive, particularly as to the
difficulties of evacuation.
http://www.tampatrib.com/MGBKB74PA9E.html
Stuck In Harm's Way
By Baird Helgeson And Neil Johnson The Tampa Tribune
Published: May 29, 2005
Best,
Kelley
When you need to communicate, Ink Works!
http://www.inkworkswell.com
+1 (727) 942-9255
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