[IP] more on Why the Intel switch is bad
Begin forwarded message:
From: Jeff Porten <civitan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: June 7, 2005 9:37:58 PM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] Why the Intel switch is bad
Monday proved that I don't always know what I'm talking about. But
for anyone who is interested in where I think this is going to go,
I've got an essay on the topic posted at <http://www.jeffporten.com/
portentia>. Precis: sooner or later, Mac OS X is going to run on non-
Macintosh hardware, and Apple is going to exploit all sorts of
crossover angles before and after.
Following up on some points made here:
Richard Forno wrote:
Intel has already started selling CPUs with DRM built in that
facilitate Hollywood's control over content played/processed by
Wintel PCs. What if the change to Intel is designed to "protect"
Apple from MPAA lawsuits etc or at least "better position it" (in
Hollywood's eyes) from a technological sense if/when it starts to
offer video-on-demand type stuff via iTunes?
Apple has proven that they have nothing against DRM or trying to
enforce it. The most likely scheme I've read about to enforce "Mac
OS only on Macintosh" involves chip-level DRM. But as I say in the
essay, this is the biggest, juiciest target for the hacker community
since... well, my metaphor generator fails me. I've been generically
convinced by Cory Doctorow that DRM is doomed to fail.
Assuming I'm right about this, eventually the Mac hardware
restriction goes the way of the same restriction for iPods. Apple is
buying some breathing room so they can see what happens to hardware
sales for the first year. Dual-boot capability will move more
hardware into Windows-only enterprises, so eventually they can take
the much smaller relative hit and start selling OS X for non-Mac
hardware. I'm predicting that after Leopard ships, they can fire
sale Tiger for $20 and take a serious run at the belief that people
run Windows because they want to.
Jonathan Shapiro wrote:
If I wanted to *prevent* this behavior, it's very very easy. I take
advantage of the DRM technology on the latest generation of
Pentiums to
ensure that the OS only runs successfully on machines shipped by
Apple.
I would love to hear from the computer scientists here on whether
they think it's possible for Apple to ship bulletproof DRM. My
thinking is, all they can do is restrict it to people who are willing
to run off-license (and even then, good luck enforcing that against
someone who purchased the software; you might be technically correct,
but you'll get excoriated), and to people with the technical chops.
Depending on the way this is written, they might be able to stop me
from selling the setup service to my clients, but they won't be able
to stop my clients from doing this on their own. Unless I'm wrong
about bulletproof DRM.
Ross Finlayson wrote:
Personally, I'm concerned for Apple - not because of the technical
challenges (they are surmountable) - but because of the likelihood
that Apple has now 'Osbourned' themselves. For example, I had been
planning for some time to replace my aging Intel laptop (running
Windows NT) with an Apple PowerBook. But I now wonder if I should
wait a year or so until Apple comes out with a (presumably much
better performing) new Intel-based PowerBook.
Go ahead and buy it. This is the topic of my next essay.
If Apple stays on schedule, then in 12 to 18 months you'll be able to
buy the first generation of the new Intel hardware and you'll be
exposed to all of the issues of first-generation machines. If the
schedule slips, then you'll get to do the same thing 6 to 12 months
later. That's presuming that the model you want isn't already
scheduled for 2007. By then, your aging laptop will be downright
geriatric.
My plan is to augment my workhorse 17" G4 PowerBook with an iMac G5,
and that hasn't changed. I need the processor cycles now, not in
2007. Then I'll let other people guinea-pig themselves on the new
hardware, and I'll replace my laptop as needed, as I have been doing
since 1993.
Last question for the computer scientists here: is there enough
competition between Intel and AMD to prevent a chip monoculture from
forming? Or are there evolutionary concerns now that both major
platforms will run on the same hardware?
Best,
Jeff
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