[IP] Clash of the Titans
Title: Clash of the Titans
Pwesonally I would like to know what consulting/advising relationships both parties have/had
Dave
------ Forwarded Message
From: Ram Narayanan <ramn_wins@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 12:29:08 -0600
To: <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Clash of the Titans
Dear Dave:
FOREIGN POLICY Magazine of January/February 2005, published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has an engaging piece of correspondence on China and the future of US-China relations between
Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies
and Dr John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. It's titled, "Clash of the Titans."
The Brzezinski-Mearsheimer dialogue (see below), makes some interesting points such as:
Mearsheimer:
"China is likely to try to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere".
"An increasingly powerful China is likely to try to push the United States out of Asia"
Brzezinski:
"China is preoccupied, and almost fascinated, with the trajectory of its own ascent".
"China’s desire for continued economic growth makes conflict with the United States unlikely".
"China’s leadership appears rational, calculating, and conscious not only of China’s rise but also of its continued weakness".
"The Chinese leadership appears much more flexible and sophisticated than many previous aspirants to great power status".
However, the two experts do not go far enough or deep enough in their prognosis of the future scenario or of the options before the United States
Yes, nationalism - aggressive nationalism - is a hallmark of the rising Chinese nation - no doubt about that, but the Chinese are going to:
- fight the battle of great powers in the field of globalized trade: China is playing its card here, very well and much of the manufacturing world is increasingly tilted in its favor. This tilt is going to become even more pronounced over the next few years (see the article on "How China will change your business" http://www.inc.com/magazine/20050301/china.html <http://www.inc.com/magazine/20050301/china.html> )
- fight out the battle in the arena of soft-power. China understands the hold of American culture, media, intellectuals and universities. Here, China is behind - but is trying to catch up initially with increased foreign student admissions at its universities. One shouldn't be surprised if China spends much more in this arena over the next few decades
- create good long term relationships with other Asian powers like India and South Korea. In South Korea, amongst the youth, the US is not well liked - in India, some sections of the media, intellectuals and politicians are sympathetic to China(notwithstanding the Chinese aggression of 1962). As an example, China is begining to open up manufacturing plants in India. And in Bangalore, in the future you may probably see as many Chinese faces as American faces.
The fact that India and South East Asia may well become the engines of growth for many years to come and China could end up having better relations with these countries than the US - is going to tilt the "balance" - whether the US is going to like it or not.
The question is - can Dr Brzezinski look beyond cold-war tactics and nuclear sabre-rattling to see that the game has been pulled from underneath his feet?
Therein, lies the peril for the United States - some of its intellectuals seem to be fighting the last war - the last cold war, I mean.
As the essay on "The U.S., India and China" published in THE WASHINGTON TIMES of February 9, 2005 (See
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050209-075842-1522r.htm) said:
"The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the think-tank of the Director of Central Intelligence, recently came out with a study titled "Mapping the Global Future." Among other things, the report forecasts the rise of India and China as potential global powers by the year 2020. Of the two countries, only China, whose GDP is predicted in the NIC document to overtake America's by the year 2042, is clearly the aggressive competitor of the United States".
The Washington Times article takes the issue of US-China relations over a longer period to its logical conclusion and it suggests the only possible option open to the United States.
Ram Narayanan
US India Friendship
http://www.usindiafriendship.net <http://www.usindiafriendship.net>
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2740.php
Zbigniew Brzezinski is a counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service professor of political science at the University of Chicago, where he codirects the Program in International Security Policy. He is the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
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