[IP] ANY OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS djf Krugman: Economic Crisis a Question of When, Not If
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Krugman: Economic Crisis a Question of When, Not If
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
Reuters
Monday 22 November 2004
New York - The economic policies of President Bush have set the
country on a dangerous course that will likely end in crisis, Princeton
economics professor Paul Krugman told Reuters in an interview.
Krugman, who may be best known for his opinion column in The New
York Times, said he was concerned that Bush's electoral victory over
Sen. John Kerry earlier this month would only reinforce the
administration's unwillingness to listen to dissenting opinions.
That, in turn, could spell serious trouble for the U.S. economy,
which under Bush's first term was plagued by soaring deficits, waning
investor confidence and anemic job creation.
"This is a group of people who don't believe that any of the rules
really apply, said Krugman. "They are utterly irresponsible."
Krugman is currently taking some time off from journalism to write
and promote the second installment of his latest project - economics
textbooks aimed at making the science more accessible to college
students.
In the meantime, however, he worries the Bush administration's
fiscal policies are going to push the world's largest economy into a
rut.
The most immediate worry for Krugman is that Bush will
simultaneously push through more tax cuts and try to privatize social
security, ignoring a chorus of economic thinkers who caution against
such measures.
"If you go back and you look at the sources of the blow-up of
Argentine debt during the 1990s, one little-appreciated thing is that
social security privatization was a important source of that expansion
of debt," said Krugman.
In 2001, Argentina finally defaulted on an estimated $100 billion
in debt, the largest such event in modern economic history.
Banana Republic?
"So if you ask the question do we look like Argentina, the answer
is a whole lot more than anyone is quite willing to admit at this
point. We've become a banana republic."
Crisis might take many forms, he said, but one key concern is the
prospect that Asian central banks may lose their appetite for U.S.
government debt, which has so far allowed the United States to finance
its twin deficits.
A deeper plunge in the already battered U.S. dollar is another
possible route to crisis, the professor said.
The absence of any mention of currencies in a communique from the
Group of 20 rich and emerging market countries this past weekend only
reinforced investors' perception that the United States, while saying
it promotes a strong dollar, is willing to let its currency slide
further.
"The break can come either from the Reserve Bank of China deciding
it has enough dollars, thank you, or from private investors saying 'I'm
going to take a speculative bet on a dollar plunge,' which then ends up
being a self-fulfilling prophecy," Krugman opined. "Both scenarios are
pretty unnerving."
In the longer-term, Bush's version of social security reform, which
Krugman says would relegate pensions for the elderly to the whims of
volatile financial markets, could have wide-ranging implications for
future generations.
The only bright spot in having Bush in power for another four
years, said Krugman, is that further economic mismanagement might
trigger some sort of popular outcry.
"I do believe at some point there is going to be a popular tidal
wave against what has happened," concluded Krugman. "In the meantime,
you keep banging on the drum, you keep telling the truth.
"And then eventually we have the great demonstrations, which I
think are important to let the government know that many Americans are
not happy with what is happening," he said.
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