[IP] LongBets -- an outlet for both the delighted and the despairing
Begin forwarded message:
From: Paul Saffo <psaffo@xxxxxxxx>
Date: November 6, 2004 8:39:45 PM EST
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: LongBets -- an outlet for both the delighted and the despairing
In the last few days, many people have been forcefully arguing the
long-term consequences of the election, optimistic and pessimistic.
Whether you are delighted or despairing, we at the LongNow Foundation
have an outlet for your passionate visions of the future at [
www.longbets.com ].
LongBets is a venue where people can make accountable predictions or
bets about future events of interest to society with philanthropic
money at stake. The Foundation provides the continuity to see even the
longest bets through to resolution (we already have several 50 years
out), and ensures that the stake is delivered to the charity specified
by the winner. In addition, LongBets provides a forum for discussion
of the bets and predictions, and what may be learned from them and
their eventual outcomes. It is our goal to foster long-term thinking
and long-term accountibility.
The New York times [
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/01/technology/01bets.htm ] recently
wrote up a 2002 bet between actor Ted Danson and Michael Elliot, editor
of Time Asia. Michael predicted that the US soccer team would win the
World Cup before the Red Sox won the World Series. Ted was the winner
and the stake of $2000 will go Ted's target charity, the American
Oceans Campaign.
Another featured bet [ http://www.longbets.org/129 ] from 2003 which
just resolved was "As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the
US." Stewart Brand made the prediction, and Brian Eno challenged him.
Because Brian was the winner, the stake of $1000 went to Brian's chosen
charity, The San Francisco Exploratorium.
Now, is there a consequence of this election that you passionately
believe? Will peace and democracy will break out in Iraq? Will the
Israelis and Palestinians find the peaceful coexistence that has eluded
them for half a century? Will suicide bombers will appear in the US?
Will Iraq witness Vietnam-like outcomes? Will Jeb Bush be the next
President, or perhaps Hilary Clinton?
The rules, posted at www.longbets.org/rules are simple, and include:
--The minimum period for predictions and bets is 2 years.
-- The subject must be societally or scientifically important.
-- One must provide an argument for one's bet/prediction.
-- The fee to place is prediction is $50, or a stake of $200 for a bet.
-- One must specify a charitable recipient.
So, if you passionately believe in a particular outcome stemming from
the November 2nd vote, this is your chance to get go on-record and also
to compel those you disagree with to step up and publicly state their
opinions in a manner that guarantees long-term accountability. Winners
gain bragging rights and the satisfaction of seeing the stake to to a
good cause of their choosing.
For more on LongBets, see: www.longbets.com
And for more on the Long Now Foundation, see www.longnow.org
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