[IP] Telephone usage down 50% since 1997
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Dave Farber +1 412 726 9889
...... Forwarded Message .......
From: Daniel Berninger <dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 07:53:33 -0400
Subj: Telephone usage down 50% since 1997
Dave,
For IP - The most recent FCC Trend Report (May 2004, Table 14.2) shows a 50%
decline in the amount of usage of each residential telephone line since
1997. The same report shows the arrival of significant Internet use in 1997
(Chart 16.1) along with rapid expansion of cell phones (Chart 11.1).
The data shows what we all know from day to day experience - the information
technology industry is annexing communication as an application - email, IM,
VoIP, e-commerce, etc. We have fewer and fewer reasons to use
plain-old-telephone-service The numbers reflect a world where RBOC's focus
their energies on regulatory battles allowing them to raise prices, and the
information technology industry works to deliver even more powerful
communication platforms and applications of the Internet.
The trend represents the final outcome of forces set in motion with founding
of Intel in 1968 along with the FCC's MCI /Carterfone decisions in that same
year. In the regulatory parlance of telecom, innovative information
services are increasingly displacing the ever more expensive telecom
services.
I posted an essay about these developments at
http://www.danielberninger.com/endoftelecom.html
Also, two events exploring these issues may be of interest to DC IPer's:
- Info Tech Annexing Communication as an Application -
Friday, September 17, 2004, 10-noon - New America Foundation, Washington, DC
Microsoft et al versus Verizon et al: Battle for Telecom Act II
Panel
Daniel Berninger, senior analyst, Tier1 Research
Blair Levin, managing director, Legg Mason
Moderator - Michael Mandel, economics editor, BusinessWeek
Friday, September 24, 2004, 10-noon - National Press Club, Washington, DC
Policy interests of VC funded insurgents versus Wall Street funded incumbent
telcos
Debate
Daniel Berninger, senior analyst, Tier1 Research
Scott Cleland, CEO, Precusor Group
Moderator - Jack Speer, business reporter, National Public Radio
RSVP's to dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Best regards,
Dan
........................................................
Daniel Berninger
w: www.danielberninger.com
v: 443.321.2735
e: dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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