[IP] Bush Slipping Amongst Tech Execs, Corporate America
Again happy (well willing) to run counter comments djf
Begin forwarded message:
From: Barry Ritholtz <ritholtz@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: June 30, 2004 7:35:40 AM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Bush Slipping Amongst Tech Execs, Corporate America
Hey Dave,
I know some of the IP-ers are less than enthralled with political
discussions, but this goes right to the heart of the core tech/VC
audience you have.
While a Monday NYT poll showed the President's poll numbers reaching a
dismal nadir, the bigger picture is where the President's support is
faltering: amongst traditionally GOP strongholds. This cannot be the
sort of news that makes Rove & Co. happy. (The link below includes
supporting charts showing why execs are so unhappy).
While its still early in the election cycle -- we have 5 months to go
-- this trend certainly bears close watching right after the Democratic
Convention to see if it has legs.
Cheers,
Barry L. Ritholtz
Market Strategist
Maxim Group
britholtz@xxxxxxxxxxxx
(212) 895-3614
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Bush Slipping Amongst Corporate America
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/06/bush_slipping_a.html
(mirror: http://www.bopnews.com/archives/000937.html#937)
Two recent polls/anecdotal surveys reveal disturbing realities about
what should be near automatic support for the President amongst GOP
voters in the upcoming election. They are not good news for the
incumbent
The first is a 1H 2004 CNBC poll of 30 professional money managers.
This group manages over $320 Billion dollars -- a third of a trillion
bucks. They were questioned about the market, the economy and the
upcoming election. While 92% of these pros thought the stock market
would do better under Bush than Kerry, a surprising 37% of them were
supporting Kerry anyway.
For the incumbent, this amounts to a very large vein of discontent
running through what should be a heavily GOP stronghold. Republican
presidents do not typically get re-elected when they are only polling a
63% support on Wall Street.
Adding support to this survey was an article from Tuesday's WSJ: "
Chinks Appear in Bush Business Armor
(http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108846166940349698,00.html)."
Again, we see a strong vein of discontent amongst what should be a GOP
stronghold: VCs, technology execs, and corporate executives.
The article took quotes from participants at the Wall Street Journal's
recent "All Things Digital" conference of senior technology executives.
"An informal show of hands revealed many more planning to vote for Mr.
Kerry than Mr. Bush. Even "Undecided" beat the president." The audience
included large and small company execs, Wall Street Analysts, and
Venture Capitalists. In the high-tech sector -- a younger and
less-traditional set of players -- is where the Journal suggests Mr.
Kerry will find the most fertile ground for support.
This development is yet another example of a demographic voting bloc
that should be a lock for a GOP President -- but isn't for this one. As
we have seen in the recent past ( Cubans
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/
cuban_voters_in.html),Arab-Americans
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/arabamericans_s.html),
etc.), the incumbent should not lightly assume that traditional GOP
voters will be fully behind him in November:
"Though George W. Bush has been a decidedly pro-business president, a
few cracks are surfacing in what had been a solid wall of business
support.
Those small cracks, some stemming from dismay with record budget
deficits , others from fears that his foreign policies are clouding
the global business climate , have grown wide enough for Sen. John
Kerry to launch a behind-the-scenes effort to woo business executives.
While the Democratic candidate has no chance of matching the incumbent
Republican's business support, even a few notable defectors could help
blunt Mr. Bush's advantage, raise doubts with swing voters and draw
more money into the Kerry coffers.
The upshot is a mostly quiet but significant struggle over business's
allegiance.
For Mr. Kerry, last week's endorsement by onetime corporate icon Lee
Iacocca, the former Chrysler Corp. chairman, was only the first of
what his campaign promises will be more such staged appearances with
business leaders. Mr. Kerry already had won backing from Berkshire
Hathaway's Warren Buffett and Apple Computer's Steve Jobs."
As we mentioned back on March 10 ( Market Adapting to Ugly Realities
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/05/market_adapting_1.html)
), there is a brewing backlash against Corporate America to the foreign
policy adventures of the present administration. I'm glad this meme is
gaining traction in the mainstream media -- hopefully, before too much
damage is down to US brands and reputations:
WSJ :
"Among Kerry supporters is Eric Best, a managing director at Morgan
Stanley, who says Mr. Bush's tax cuts go too far at the expense of
mounting deficits. "I was raised as a fiscal conservative, and I think
his fiscal policy is scary," he says. Mr. Best, who remembers Mr. Bush
as an upper-class dormitory proctor at Phillips Academy Andover
boarding school, says that what really motivates him to stump for Mr.
Kerry is the hostility the global strategist finds as he travels.
"I can testify to the extraordinary destruction of 'American Brand
Value' accomplished by this administration, from Europe to Hong Kong
to Shanghai to Tokyo, and beyond ," he wrote in a recent e-mail that
he widely distributed. "If any CEO of a global multinational had
accomplished this for his enterprise as quickly and radically as
George Bush Jr. has done for the U.S., he would be replaced by the
board in no time."
Fascinating stuff.
Source :
Chinks Appear in Bush Business Armor
Kerry, Sensing an Opening, Tries to Gain Political Capital By Courting
Corporate America
By JACKIE CALMES
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 29, 2004; Page A4
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108846166940349698,00.html
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