From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger@xxxxxxx>
Date: June 21, 2004 6:56:22 PM PDT
To: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Dave Farber
<dave@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Native American Vote Could Decide Senate Majority,
Presidential Election
Indian Vote Could Decide Senate Majority, Presidential Election
Jerry Reynolds
Indian Country Today
<http://www.indiancountry.com/index.php?1087567876>
Friday 18 June 2004
It is still early for the 2004 presidential elections, early
enough
that every crystal ball is bound to be cloudy.
Even so, this much can be said with certainty: events have fallen
out
in such a way as to position the Indian vote for decisive influence on
Nov.
2. In fact, the Native vote has never been so crucial to the prospects
of a
president, nor to the majority party in the Senate.
This is due to two factors: a polarization in American politics
that
has led each presidential candidate to concede the electoral vote in
about
30 states to his rival, as a foregone conclusion; and an anticipated
tight
election in which the winner, as in 2000, may be crowned by only a
handful
of electoral votes.
Those votes will come from 16 or 17 so-called "battleground
states,"
states that were decided by 6 percent of the vote or less in 2000.
(Another
three or four states, namely Colorado, Delaware, Louisiana and perhaps
New
Jersey, lean Republican or Democrat now, but could become battleground
states if the other party focuses resources on putting them into play.)
Among the current battleground states, where the candidates are
concentrating a majority of their time and money, Indian people hold
the
"swing vote" - the key few percentage points of total popular votes
that
could swing electoral votes whichever way they are cast - in a handful
of
them.
Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin,
Minnesota,
Michigan - in each of these, the presidential race is expected to be
exceedingly close, as they were in 2004 with Bush taking the electoral
votes
of Arizona and Nevada by 5 and 4 percent respectively, and Democratic
candidate Al Gore landing the others, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin
by
less than 1 percent, Minnesota by 2 percent, Washington by 4 percent
and
Michigan by 5.
And in each, the Native population is positioned to provide the
few
percentage points of the total popular vote that would deliver
electoral
votes to the victor.
In several of these states and South Dakota as well, Senate races
will
also be close-run. South Dakota provided a presage of that scenario on
June
1. Stephanie Herseth, a Democrat, defeated Republican Larry Diedrich
in a
special election to fill the seat of William Janklow, forced to resign
from
the House of Representatives following his conviction for felony
manslaughter in a traffic death. Herseth's margin of victory was 2,981
votes
out of 261,773, or 51 percent to 49. Indian voters cast ballots in
record
numbers, more than doubling their turnout in several Indian-populous
counties that include the Rosebud, Pine Ridge, Cheyenne River Sioux and
Standing Rock reservations. The Indian vote is widely credited with
delivering a Senate seat to Democrat Tim Johnson, by only 524 ballots,
in
2002, and both parties said it delivered again on June 1.
Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican in the House, said that without
the
Indian vote, the Republican candidate would have prevailed. Tom
Daschle,
Democratic Minority Leader in the Senate, called the special election
"yet
another race where the Native vote made the difference."
Herseth will fill the remainder of Janklow's term before facing
the
voters again for a full term in November. In the meantime, she becomes
the
205th Democrat in the House, joining 228 Republicans and one
Independent.
The Senate is still more closely divided, with 51 Republicans, 48
Democrats and one Independent.
Though the presidential race will be the focus of the Nov. 4
elections,
the House and Senate contests are no less important. In both chambers,
the
majority party dominates committee structure, deciding which bills
come up
for a vote and which are tabled, which "riders" get a hearing and
which do
not. In addition, the more votes a minority party can count on, the
more
likely it will be to keep majority bills from coming to a vote through
parliamentary maneuvers such as the filibuster, or deliberately
prolonged
debate. As the current 108th Congress so far proves on several counts,
even
the fate legislation favored by a sitting president, in a Congress his
party
controls, may come to depend on good will from the minority party.
The unprecedented potential impact of the Indian vote in 2004 can
be
reckoned from the simple fact that in some states, Indian voters can
swing
the vote for both the presidency - and the majority party in the
Senate.
The National Congress of American Indians is spearheading efforts
to
turn out more Indian voters in 2004 than ever before. NCAI takes note
of the
following figures:
• In Alaska, Alaska Natives make up 16 percent of eligible
voters. Lisa
Murkowski, a Republican appointed to fill the Senate seat of her
father,
Frank Murkowski, after he became the state's governor, is up for
re-election.
• In Arizona, almost 300,000 Indians make up 5.7 percent of the
state's
population.
• In Colorado, Indians make up 1.5 percent of the population. With
Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell retiring, one Senate seat is
open.
• In Michigan, Indians make up 1.3 percent of the state's
population;
in Minnesota, 1.6 percent.
• In Nevada, where Republican Sen. Harry Reid is up for
re-election,
the Indian percentage of the population is 2.1.
• In New Mexico, Indians are 10.5 percent of the population.
• In North Dakota, where Sen. Byron Dorgan, a Democrat, is up for
re-election, Indians are 5.5 percent of the population.
• In Oklahoma, where Republican Sen. Don Nickles is up for
re-election,
Native people make up 8 percent of the total population.
• In Oregon, where Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden is up for
re-election,
Indians make up 2.5 percent of the state population.
• In South Dakota, 9 percent of the state population is Indian.
Sen.
Tom Daschle, the Democratic Minority Leader, is up for re-election. As
mentioned above, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth, winner of a special
election to the House of Representatives June 1, will face the voters
again
in November.
• In Utah, where Republican Sen. Robert Bennett is up for
re-election,
Indians make up 1.8 percent of the population.
• In Washington, where Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is up for
re-election, Indians are 2.7 percent of the state's population.
• In Wisconsin, where Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is up for
re-election, Indians make up 1.3 percent of the population.
Of course, none of these races will be decided on Indian issues
alone.
In Arizona and New Mexico, the Hispanic vote will play a large role. In
Nevada, President Bush's decision to make Yucca Mountain, northwest of
Las
Vegas, the national nuclear waste dump is not expected to play well
with the
state's Republican-leaning electorate. In the industrial economy
enclaves of
Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, jobs are said to be the major
issue, but
President Bush's approval rating is declining almost commensurate with
a
resurgent job market. In Oregon and Washington, Democratic challenger
John
Kerry is expected to benefit from the coastal states' environmental
concerns. And throughout the battleground states, recent polls have
found
Arab citizens abandoning Bush.
But the closer the 2004 elections become, the more prominently
loom
Indian people as holders of a decisive swing vote. If there is one
issue
that unites all Indian voters as they weigh the different candidates,
NCAI
has suggested it: "We will not support candidates who do not support
our
sovereignty."