[IP] more on For High-Definition Sets, Channels to Match
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Lawrence A. Rowe" <Rowe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: June 12, 2004 4:23:13 AM EDT
To: dave@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [IP] more on For High-Definition Sets, Channels to Match
Reply-To: Rowe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dave - for IP if you care...
Transitions to new technology is an old story in the broadcast
industry. Recall
color tv - standardized in 1953 but it was not till the early 1960's
that more
than 50% of the homes had a color tv. What caused the public to
finally adopt
color -- the tv show Bonanza, call it the "killer app" of its day.
So, when HDTV was standardized, the dates are confusing but let's use
2000 since
that was when the final official standard was published (as I recall).
So, it
will probably take until 2012-2015 before 50% of the homes have HDTV
unless a
"killer app" show appears. I have watched HDTV shows and the compelling
programming to me is live sports - watching the action on a wide screen
with
higher resolution changes what you see in a game - but others might
enjoy
nature, history, and drama shows. But so far it has not happened and I
doubt it
will happen soon.
Here are some other significant, albeit stupid issues, that people have
raised:
1. Custom built home entertainment centers that were designed for a
30"+ 4:3 set
will not easily accept a 40-60" wide screen display. Humm, rip out the
woodwork? Install a projector?
2. Until very recently, you could not record HDTV programming for
on-demand
replay. Now there are HDTV dvd recorders and some early tape decks.
3. Until recently, HDTV was not available on cable systems. Over the
air
broadcasts are not as widely available as you might think w/o
installing a tall
antenna on your roof - remember those funny pictures of neighborhoods
in the
1950's with every house having an 8-15 foot tv antenna. Satellite has
carried
HDTV for some time, but they have relatively few subscribers - maybe
10M out of
100+M homes. In the US over 75-80% of the homes have cable or
satellite so the
dominant distribution channel is cable.
4. Cost continues to be an issue. $6-10K plasma displays are selling
well, but
not in the 10's of millions. I was told once by someone in the tv
manufacturing
industry that the magic number is $1K. My sense is that $2K is an
important
price point too as many people have bought wide/big screen tv's for
that price.
Finally, I was told by someone at Phillips that the average lifetime
for a tv is
12 years. So, it will take at least 6 years before half the people have
replaced a tv - people who will make a conscious decision to buy or not
buy an
HDTV. In the early years, the percentage who will try the new
technology is
going to be low for many reasons - lack of programming, cost, signal
receipt
problems, etc.
SO, I am continuing to watch for the "killer show" that will only be
good if you
can get it in HDTV. So far, I haven't seen it.
Larry
--
Lawrence A. Rowe (Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley)
925-218-2221 http://cs.berkeley.edu/~larry
-------------------------------------
You are subscribed as roessler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To manage your subscription, go to
http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip
Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/