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[IP] more on Maybe there's no mystery after all




Delivered-To: dfarber+@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Tue, 06 Jan 2004 15:32:58 -0600
From: Dee Smith <deesmith@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

Dave:

A fascinating corollary of all Steven Cherry's comment that in the very long run wage levels equalize is worthy of consideration. Jobs are moved sequentially to cheaper labor pools where (and as) the labor in those places becomes skilled enough to handle the work, as Mexico has seen to its dismay in recent years. Mexico, formerly a destination of choice for relatively skilled cheap labor, has seen jobs move to East Asia - China in particular - as its relative labor costs increased.

China and its neighbors represent probably the last large pool of cheap labor on the planet. On the very long term that Mr. Cherry mentions, what happens to the base cost of production as the equalization process plays out and China's workers demand - and receive - higher pay in the decades ahead? Will the cost of everything simply start to rise inexorably at some point? Is this sustainable, or in the long run will it be a wage bubble that bursts, worldwide? How will (or might) population growth impact this? Any IP economists have any insight on this?

Even if there is another pool of cheap labor in Africa or somewhere else, assuming processes continue in their present direction, at some point it will be absorbed too, so the question remains, it would seem.

-Dee

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