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more on What about the numbers? Re: [IP] Fliers to Be Rated for Risk Level



this is one of 7 that asked the same question. djf


Date: Tue, 09 Sep 2003 13:14:18 -0700
From: Lee Tien <tien@xxxxxxx>
Subject: What about the numbers? Re: [IP] Fliers to Be Rated for Risk Level
X-Sender: tien@xxxxxxxxxxxx (Unverified)
To: Dave Farber <dave@xxxxxxxxxx>


Dave,

Maybe air-travel-savvy IP readers could comment on the system implications of the passenger "flow" numbers here. The Post says:

Most people will be coded green and sail through. But up to 8 percent of passengers who board the nation's 26,000 >daily flights will be coded "yellow" and will undergo additional screening at the checkpoint, according to people >familiar with the program. An estimated 1 to 2 percent will be labeled "red" and will be prohibited from >boarding. These passengers also will face police questioning and may be arrested.

Suppose about 2 million people fly per day.* (e.g., the 26,000 flights average about 75-80 passengers) If red = 2% and yellow = 8%, they'll be trying to extra-screen or block 200,000 people/day
Even if that's worst-case and they do half that, still 100,000 people/day

Hartsfield/Atlanta had about 38.6 million in 2002 (they seem to be the biggest). Say they see 100,000 per day. Can they extra-screen or block 5,000-10,000 people/day?

Are these back-of-the-envelope numbers in the ballpark, and if so, can the system really handle this smoothly?

Of course, the idea that even 5% of air travelers are worth looking at as terrorist risks is absurd. Maybe the percentages given in the story are in error.

Lee Tien

*Edward Hasbrouck http://hasbrouck.org/articles/travelprivacy.html pointed me to this TSA news release, 11 March 2003:

=====

http://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=44&content=250

"The vast majority of passengers identified by CAPPS II will score "green" and need only normal screening dramatically reducing the number of travelers who undergo additional screening at the security checkpoint. A small percentage of passengers with scores in the "yellow" range will need to have some additional scrutiny. "Few of the close to two million passengers who fly each day will trigger "red " blocking them from flying and drawing the attention of law enforcement."



It is worth pointing out that as in the last sentence, this system will be used for other purposes like making sure you don't sit next to a delinquent father , a pornographer and then someone who disagrees with the powers that be. Just how will accountability and errors be handled. Will being cleared by the local police ever show up in the system (bet not).All the dangers of systems built to do one thing and expanded djf


From: jspira@xxxxxxxxx


Dave, perhaps what is most interesting about this is that travellers won't be told what there code is, however those who are "green" will always sail through and those who are "yellow" will always face more intense scrutiny. It should only take one or two trips to figure out your colour.

/s/ Jonathan

Jonathan B. Spira
CEO and Chief Analyst
Basex
E-mail: jspira@xxxxxxxxx
Tel: +1 (212) 725-2600 x113
www.basex.com
_______________________


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Fliers to Be Rated for Risk Level

By Sara Kehaulani Goo

In the most aggressive -- and, some say, invasive -- step yet to protect air travelers, the federal government and the airlines will phase in a computer system next year to measure the risk posed by every passenger on every flight in the United States.

The new Transportation Security Administration system seeks to probe deeper into each passenger's identity than is currently possible, comparing personal information against criminal records and intelligence information. Passengers will be assigned a color code -- green, yellow or red -- based in part on their city of departure, destination, traveling companions and date of ticket purchase.

Most people will be coded green and sail through. But up to 8 percent of passengers who board the nation's 26,000 daily flights will be coded "yellow" and will undergo additional screening at the checkpoint, according to people familiar with the program. An estimated 1 to 2 percent will be labeled "red" and will be prohibited from boarding. These passengers also will face police questioning and may be arrested.

The system "will provide protections for the flying public," said TSA spokesman Brian Turmail. "Not only should we keep passengers from sitting next to a terrorist, we should keep them from sitting next to wanted ax murderers."

<snip>

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